Source: Sharecast
At a keynote speech at a Central Bank of Ireland conference on Thursday, the external Monetary Policy Committee member said the Trump administration's step-up in trade duties would be a "drag on global growth" through weaker demand.
"So far, the recent episode appears to be one-off adjustments to global reorganisation. Therefore, I would expect orderly fragmentation with some reduction in international diversification – this means lower overall growth – and some downward pressure on prices in the medium term," Dhingra said.
The policymaker, who in February was reappointed for a second three-year term running to August 2028, highlighted Brexit's negative impact on trade as a warning about the ramifications of protectionism on economic growth.
She said that the vote to the leave the EU has had a "corrosive effect of policy uncertainty on trade, productivity, and business investment".
"And this effect builds over time, so the more prolonged and pervasive the uncertainty, the more concerned we should be about outcomes," she said.
Dhingra cited research which showed that the sectors most exposed to Brexit barriers saw declines of 16% in exports to the EU, with losses in market share having not been replaced by exports to other regions.
"Trade weakness has combined with uncertainty in the UK to weaken both investment and productivity. A combination of micro and macro estimates suggest that the Brexit process had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, investment by 12% to 18%, employment by 3% to 4%, and productivity by 3% to 4%."
