Source: Sharecast
Bernberg said Ecora's 33% year-to-date share price gain was as a result of the global commodity market experiencing "somewhat of a melt-up moment", driven by a mixture of supply issues, stable demand, geopolitical risks and a weaker USD.
"For too long, the market has focused on the Kestrel metallurgical coal royalty, in Australia; however, as we have argued in the past (see New era as Kestrel's dominance finally fades, dated 14 July 2025), the market needs to focus on Ecora's core portfolio, excluding Kestrel, which we expect should grow its portfolio contribution (on our base-case price deck) from $22m in 2024 to $33m in 2025 and $43m in 2026," said Berenberg.
The German bank noted that global diversified miners have moved away from a diversified portfolio, and in fact run "more concentrated portfolios". However,
it also said it likes the diversified nature of Ecora's portfolio and flag three commodities which are all having good rallies and are direct, immediate beneficiaries to the firm's bottom line - copper, cobalt, and uranium.
"At spot commodity prices, we forecast upgrades to our expectations by c8% for 2025 and c14% for 2026. We think that there is much more to come from Ecora's shares and
for a stock that is up 33% ytd, with an attractive deleveraging profile and rising core EBITDA, with mark to market upside, we reiterate our conviction 'buy'," added Berenberg.
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com
