US non-farm payrolls growth slows to a crawl in August

Hiring in the US crept only a tad higher last month, undershooting economists' forecasts in the process.

US dollar bills

Source: Sharecast

According to the Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls grew by 22,000 in August (consensus: 75,000).

Revised data also showed that it in fact contracted in June, with non-farm payrolls falling by 13,000 (Preliminary: +14,000).

July's tally was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000.

As of 1332 BST, the yield on the benchmark 30-year bond was off by six basis points to 4.797%.

COMEX gold futures meanwhile were up by 0.86% to $3,637.70/oz. and euro/dollar by 0.59% at 1.1720.

The rate of unemployment ticked higher by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.3%, as expected, although the labour force participation rate did improve from 62.2% to 62.3%.

Average hourly earnings meanwhile rose at a 0.3% month-on-month pace, as anticipated.

The downturn in hiring was worst among goods-producing sectors, with non-farm payrolls shrinking by 25,000 after a 8,000 person drop in July.

Payroll growth in private sector services meanwhile slowed 85,000 to 63,000.

Government payroll growth also slowed and flipped into the red by -16,000 after an increase of just 2,000 during the previous month.

"While the US economy has been shedding jobs in certain sectors for some time, for example, the manufacturing sector, now there is a sign that the other sectors of the economy cannot make up for this by hiring more," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

"The broad nature of the slowdown is likely to lead to concerns about the state of the economy, it could also lead to the ire of Donald Trump and even more pressure on the Fed to cut rates."

For his part, Bradley Saunders at Capital Economics argued that the rise in the participation rate would limit calls amongst the more dovish minded on the Federal Open Market Committee for a 50bp rate cut later in September.

He also noted that the preliminary benchmark revisions to employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025 would be released during the following week.

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics was of a similar mind, saying the Fed was "more likely" to stick to a 25bp cut at its next meeting.

He pointed out in a post on LinkedIn that August payrolls were almost always revised up as more data was collected.

Furthermore, the recent rise in unemployment was "not statistically significant at a 90% confidence level over any horizon up to one year."

Compare our accounts

If you're looking to grow your money over the longer term (5+ years), we have a range of investment choices to help.

Bank of Scotland is not responsible for the content and accuracy of the Markets News articles. We may not share the views of the author. Understand the risks, please remember the value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invest. We don't provide advice so if you are in any doubt about buying and selling shares or making your own investment decisions we recommend you seek advice from a suitably qualified Financial Advisor. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Important legal information

Bank of Scotland Share Dealing Service is operated by Halifax Share Dealing Limited. Halifax Share Dealing Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 3195646. Registered Office: Trinity Road, Halifax, West Yorkshire HX1 2RG. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN under number 183332. A Member of the London Stock Exchange and an HM Revenue & Customs Approved ISA Manager.

Logo Allfunds

The information contained within this website is provided by Allfunds Digital, S.L.U. acting through its business division Digital Look Ltd unless otherwise stated. The information is not intended to be advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any of the shares, companies or investment vehicles mentioned, nor is it information meant to be a research recommendation. This is a solution powered by Allfunds Digital, S.L.U. acting through its business division Digital Look Ltd incorporating their prices, data news, charts, fundamentals and investor tools on this site. Terms and conditions apply. Prices and trades are provided by Allfunds Digital, S.L.U. acting through its business division Digital Look Ltd and are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

FE fundinfo Logo

Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.

Refinitiv Logo

© 2025 Refinitiv, an LSEG business. All rights reserved.