Gulf oil output slumps in March as OPEC cuts Q2 demand forecast

Oil production across OPEC member nations plunged by over a quarter during the month of March, according to the group's latest output figures, with Gulf countries seeing sharp declines in output as a result of direct disruption from the Iran war.

Source: Sharecast

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that production across its 12 member countries totalled 20.8m barrels per day last month, down 27% compared with the the 28.7m b/d produced in February.

A near-standstill along the key Strait of Hormuz trade channel has seen oil-producing nations of the Gulf restrict production amid attacks by Iran across the region.

Four of the OPEC's 12 member states recorded significant month-on-month declines in output, with its largest producing region, Saudi Arabia, seeing a 23% drop to 7.80m b/d in March.

Meanwhile, production in Iraq fell 61% to 1.63m b/d, fell 53% in Kuwait to 1.21m b/d and by 44% in the UAE to 1.89m b/d.

Iran, however, only saw a 5% drop in output to 3.06m b/d as Tehran allowed shipments to continue through the Strait of Hormuz.

Overall, OPEC continues to expect oil demand to total 106.5m b/d in 2026, up 1.38m b/d compared with 2025, though the organisation lowered its forecast for the second quarter by some 500,000 b/d, though this will be offset in the second half.

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