Source: Sharecast
Israeli troops entered Lebanon after the pro-Iran Hezbollah militia based in the country fired missiles across the border. Meanwhile Iranian drones hit the US embassy compound in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war - operationally known as 'Epic Fury' - could take “some time” but added that it was not “endless”. US president Donald Trump, who at the start of the conflict said it would take a month suddenly pivoted and stated it could take “far longer”.
The price of Brent crude surged 8.28% to $84.14 a barrel, while the Dutch TTF contract for April was €62, having traded around €32 prior to the conflict. Investors feared the oil price could hit $100, a price not seen since Russian launched its unprovoked war against Ukraine.
Tankers continued to be stranded either side of the vital Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned any boat would be fired upon. Meanwhile a drone strike temporarily halted production at Saudi Arabia’s largest facility, heightening fears of supply disruption.
Oil stocks made further ground on Monday’s rally, with Equinor, Repsol, BP and TotalEnergies among the gainers.
Israel on Tuesday said it was attacking targets in Iran and Lebanon, where the Hezbollah militia has been launching missiles towards neighbouring Gulf states and also US and UK bases in Cyprus.
With no clear reason for the start of the war nor its ultimate aim, analysts fear a prolonged conflict could cause a long-term spike in energy prices and refuel global inflation.
"According to Bloomberg, a $10 increase in oil could add 0.3% to CPI and drive GDP -0.2% lower. However, the real impact would be felt if we see crude hit $100, with a $30 increase in oil expected to bring a 0.9% rise to eurozone CPI and a -0.6% hit to growth," said Scope Markets analyst Joshua Mahony.
"Unfortunately, it is not only oil that the Europeans have to worry about, with the move away from Russian imports leaving the region particularly exposed to the impact of the decision to halt LNG production in Qatar (15% of European LNG imports). With current Dutch gas prices standing at €57/MWh, there is a strong chance they will soon trade at double the €30/MWh low seen just last week."
Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com
